Interesting post, Genesis. I think it could apply to Kuwait and Bahrain, but I am less convinced about the UAE and Saudi, as the UAE is not as dependent on a single resource and KSA always has agriculture. But a good case could be made for them, too. I singled out Qatar because we are on QL and because it is the most extreme example--smallest but also wealthiest per capita and with a huge rich-poor gap.
I think the government (or at least elements within it) are trying to diversify--certainly much harder than Nauru's did. The knowledge-based economy (particularly the idea of getting as many patents as possible and living off the dividends) and the diversification of wealth by investing in and buying foreign holdings, etc. are the only viable alternatives to Nauru's fate. The first has a better chance than the second--the wealth fund is making some poor investment choices and foreign governments have a habit of blocking the sales of stuff really worth buying (utilities, etc.).
The longterm problem: what do you think will happen IF Qatar gets it right, and manages to diversify before LNG becomes obsolete? There is no way Kuwait or KSA will manage that. At that point, confederation will be bad for Qatar but good for the much larger KSA. How do you think the Saudis will respond?
Interesting post, Genesis. I think it could apply to Kuwait and Bahrain, but I am less convinced about the UAE and Saudi, as the UAE is not as dependent on a single resource and KSA always has agriculture. But a good case could be made for them, too. I singled out Qatar because we are on QL and because it is the most extreme example--smallest but also wealthiest per capita and with a huge rich-poor gap.
I think the government (or at least elements within it) are trying to diversify--certainly much harder than Nauru's did. The knowledge-based economy (particularly the idea of getting as many patents as possible and living off the dividends) and the diversification of wealth by investing in and buying foreign holdings, etc. are the only viable alternatives to Nauru's fate. The first has a better chance than the second--the wealth fund is making some poor investment choices and foreign governments have a habit of blocking the sales of stuff really worth buying (utilities, etc.).
The longterm problem: what do you think will happen IF Qatar gets it right, and manages to diversify before LNG becomes obsolete? There is no way Kuwait or KSA will manage that. At that point, confederation will be bad for Qatar but good for the much larger KSA. How do you think the Saudis will respond?