what is scenario 1 based on?? Is this accpet in the wider scientifc community?Actually the model are pretty good. They have been tested against historical data and have predicted outcomes correctly. IPCC AR4 discusses the reliability of models in projecting future climate changes. Among the reasons it cites that we can be confident in model projections is their ability to model past climate changes in a process known as "hindcasting.
what is scenario 1 based on?? Is this accpet in the wider scientifc community?Actually the model are pretty good. They have been tested against historical data and have predicted outcomes correctly. IPCC AR4 discusses the reliability of models in projecting future climate changes. Among the reasons it cites that we can be confident in model projections is their ability to model past climate changes in a process known as "hindcasting.
This is a fantastic link on the use of models: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-climate-models. James Hanen's simple 1988 model has predicted the rise in global pretty accurately