Shift of Power in the Middle East

Politicians always need a bogeyman to coerce the masses..

a shelter for beast to stay longer in Petro-Dollars States.

britexpat said "Iran's influence in Iraq increased as sson as Sadam was ousted."

This actually brings to mind the recent movie "Fair Game" depicting the 2003 controversy of former CIA operative, Valerie Plame - Wilson. But as they say, "the truth is always slippery."

MxY, Thanks for sharing the interesting article re the upcoming nego on 21-22 Jan 2011 between the US, UK, France, China, Russia + Germany with Iran. Wonder if Turkey can stick to only hosting the meeting or whether it might end up having to mediate it. Will see.

The following excerpts are just for my info, in case the article is MIA later, as has happened with some other articles in the past. Pls ignore. Cheerio!

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"The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal."

"Iran’s most powerful countermove in a war would be to block the Strait of Hormuz with mines, anti-ship missiles and swarming suicide craft, cutting off the substantial flow of oil that comes out of the strait. Such a cutoff would shatter the global economic recovery. This is Iran’s true “nuclear” option."

"At stake in this discussion is nothing less than the future of the Arabian Peninsula."

"At the same time, Turkey has been repositioning itself as both a leading power in the Muslim world and the bridge between the Muslim world and the West, particularly the United States."

"The problem for Turkey, therefore, is not so much bringing the United States and Iran closer but bringing the Saudis and Iranians closer ... to reconcile the fundamental issue in the region, which is the relationship between Persians and Arabs."

3 needs -

i) facilitate the American withdrawals;

ii) limit the degree of control Iran has in Iraq

iii) persuade Saudi Arabia that the degree of control ceded to Iranians will not threaten Saudi interests.

"Having regional power is not a concept. It is a complex and unpleasant process of balancing contradictory interests in order to prevent greater threats to a country’s interests emerging in the long run."

Yeah it's just brainstorming. In the near future we will see what will happen. Maybe the aliens will destroy us all in 2012 and we won't have to worry anymore :)

George Friedman is a right wing writer who has always championed the use of power and is pro coloniolism.

He has suggested that Japan and Turkey will become allies to attack the US and has stated that "The US has a strategic disruptive imperative, based on geopolitical interests. This will make the planet an uncomfortable place, particular for rising powers."

Therefore, in a way, the removal of the US from the region may have a calming effect.

britexpat said:

" Iran's influence in Iraq increased as sson as Sadam was ousted. the presence or non presence of US Forces is irrelivant. The fact is that the Shiite majority in Iraq will always lean towards friendship with Iran."

True but, because of the huge military existence in Iraq, Iran was not able to shape the country for its own goals. Governmental, economical and military institutions were controlled by the US. So after the retreat of these forces, Iranian influence will be much more effective and visible. Iraq does not only consists of Shiites. There is a big number of Sunnis too.

britexpat said:

" As far as "domination of the Persian Gulf" goes, this is also irrelivant. it is only the Saudis and Americans who are playing on this issue."

Saudis are not a match for Iranian military and naval power. It is the US presence in the Gulf that counterbalances Iran in the Persian Gulf. So if the US would leave the Persian Gulf, many issues will arise in that region. Iran + an Iranian controlled Iraq in the Persian Gulf without US presence seems like a nightmare for the Saudis.

Slightly biased and right wing views.

Iran's influence in Iraq increased as sson as Sadam was ousted. the presence or non presence of US Forces is irrelivant. The fact is that the Shiite majority in Iraq will always lean towards friendship with Iran.

As far as "domination of the Persian Gulf" goes, this is also irrelivant. it is only the Saudis and Americans who are playing on this issue.