MxY, Thanks for sharing the interesting article re the upcoming nego on 21-22 Jan 2011 between the US, UK, France, China, Russia + Germany with Iran. Wonder if Turkey can stick to only hosting the meeting or whether it might end up having to mediate it. Will see.
The following excerpts are just for my info, in case the article is MIA later, as has happened with some other articles in the past. Pls ignore. Cheerio!
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"The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal."
"Iran’s most powerful countermove in a war would be to block the Strait of Hormuz with mines, anti-ship missiles and swarming suicide craft, cutting off the substantial flow of oil that comes out of the strait. Such a cutoff would shatter the global economic recovery. This is Iran’s true “nuclear” option."
"At stake in this discussion is nothing less than the future of the Arabian Peninsula."
"At the same time, Turkey has been repositioning itself as both a leading power in the Muslim world and the bridge between the Muslim world and the West, particularly the United States."
"The problem for Turkey, therefore, is not so much bringing the United States and Iran closer but bringing the Saudis and Iranians closer ... to reconcile the fundamental issue in the region, which is the relationship between Persians and Arabs."
3 needs -
i) facilitate the American withdrawals;
ii) limit the degree of control Iran has in Iraq
iii) persuade Saudi Arabia that the degree of control ceded to Iranians will not threaten Saudi interests.
"Having regional power is not a concept. It is a complex and unpleasant process of balancing contradictory interests in order to prevent greater threats to a country’s interests emerging in the long run."
MxY, Thanks for sharing the interesting article re the upcoming nego on 21-22 Jan 2011 between the US, UK, France, China, Russia + Germany with Iran. Wonder if Turkey can stick to only hosting the meeting or whether it might end up having to mediate it. Will see.
The following excerpts are just for my info, in case the article is MIA later, as has happened with some other articles in the past. Pls ignore. Cheerio!
________________________________________________________
"The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal."
"Iran’s most powerful countermove in a war would be to block the Strait of Hormuz with mines, anti-ship missiles and swarming suicide craft, cutting off the substantial flow of oil that comes out of the strait. Such a cutoff would shatter the global economic recovery. This is Iran’s true “nuclear” option."
"At stake in this discussion is nothing less than the future of the Arabian Peninsula."
"At the same time, Turkey has been repositioning itself as both a leading power in the Muslim world and the bridge between the Muslim world and the West, particularly the United States."
"The problem for Turkey, therefore, is not so much bringing the United States and Iran closer but bringing the Saudis and Iranians closer ... to reconcile the fundamental issue in the region, which is the relationship between Persians and Arabs."
3 needs -
i) facilitate the American withdrawals;
ii) limit the degree of control Iran has in Iraq
iii) persuade Saudi Arabia that the degree of control ceded to Iranians will not threaten Saudi interests.
"Having regional power is not a concept. It is a complex and unpleasant process of balancing contradictory interests in order to prevent greater threats to a country’s interests emerging in the long run."